Fiscal decentralization in Indonesia: A comment on smoke and lewis

In World Development Smoke and Lewis (1996) describe a local government capability rating effort in Indonesia, and conclude that this approach to decentralization has great potential. Their analysis is bound to a limited set of central level actors, and thus reflects only part of the decentralization debate in Indonesia. Consequently the authors miss the roots of this purportedly “new” approach and overestimate its actual or possible effects. Smoke and Lewis have also not taken into account the importance of a vastly different approach to decentralization, the regional autonomy pilot program, which was inaugurated by the Indonesian Government in April 1995. Providing the broader context to the rating effort, we try to reveal its conceptual and practical limitations and point on the ambiguous role of the rating effort in the decentralization arena in Indonesia.     

MATCHING MODELS UNDER SCRUTINY: AN APPRAISAL OF THE SHIMER PUZZLE

Abstract Two papers have recently questioned the quantitative consistency of the search and matching model. Shimer has argued that a textbook matching model is unable to explain the cyclical variation of unemployment and vacancies in the US economy. Costain and Reiter have found the existence of a trade‐off in the model's performance: any attempt to change the calibrated values to improve the model's ability to predict the business cycle jeopardizes its predictions of the impact of unemployment benefits on unemployment. In surveying the literature originating in these findings, I distinguish three different avenues that have been followed to correct the model: change in wage formation, change in the calibration and changes in the model specification. The last approach seems to achieve the best results both from a business cycle and from a microeconomic viewpoint.     

Redistribution and Government Tactical Behaviour: An Analysis of Local Public Expenditure in China after the 1994 Tax Reform

During the last few decades significant changes have affected Chinese public finance. In 1994, a major tax reform was undertaken and central–local sharing arrangements were deeply modified; the evolutions of regional public expenditure in the years following the reform deserve to be analysed. The issue is relevant for two additional reasons. First, income inequality is becoming a relevant issue and it is therefore important to understand whether the Chinese government is pursuing some kind of redistribution policy. Second, an analysis of the local expenditure dynamics might provide some important information concerning the objectives and the behaviour of the Chinese government. The article considers a set of structural, political and socio‐economic variables to analyse the determinants of local public expenditure in 30 Chinese regions over the period 1995–2007. The results reveal that redistribution seems not to be a priority for the Chinese government: expenditure is higher in richer and more internationally open regions, and the only redistribution evidence that emerges is related to urban–rural disparities.     

A framework for analysing strategies of Internet Service Providers

The fast proliferation of services over the Internet and the development of new Internet standards and technologies are affecting the existing business models of the traditional telecommunications market. This holds, in particular, for the ISP market. This paper assesses the impacts of basic elements of business strategies on the relative competitive position of selected types of ISPs. One result is that the incumbent telcos have a relatively strong starting point in the ISP market, while small regional ISPs have a weak starting point.     

Indirect estimation of large conditionally heteroskedastic factor models,with an application to the Dow 30 stocks

We derive indirect estimators of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models in which the volatilities of common and idiosyncratic factors depend on their past unobserved values by calibrating the score of a Kalman-filter approximation with inequality constraints on the auxiliary model parameters. We also propose alternative indirect estimators for large-scale models, and explain how to apply our procedures to many other dynamic latent variable models. We analyse the small sample behaviour of our indirect estimators and several likelihood-based procedures through an extensive Monte Carlo experiment with empirically realistic designs. Finally, we apply our procedures to weekly returns on the Dow 30 stocks.     

Rate-of-return dominance and efficiency in an experimental economy

Summary. One of the main challenges for monetary economics is to explain the use of assets that are dominated in rate-of-return as media of exchange. We use experimental methods to study how a fiat money might come to be used in transactions when an identically marketable, dividend-bearing asset, a consol, is also available. Our experimental economies, which have an overlapping generations structure, have the property that the only stationary rational expectations equilibria (SREE) require exclusive use of the consol as the medium of exchange. In a baseline treatment, agents use the consol exclusively, as would occur in an SREE. However, in other treatments, we observe episodes of rate-of-return dominance,with consistent use of fiat money as a medium of exchange. The results show that two properties of our economies are associated with the rate of return dominance anomaly. The first is a history of trading with fiat money, prior to the introduction of the consol. The second is the timing of the dividend payment; when the dividend payment follows the execution of trades between generations, hoarding of the consol occurs on the part of the old, who earn dividends by hoarding. In our economies, settling transactions with a dividend-bearing asset does not improve allocations over those resulting from trading with fiat money. Received: July 11, 2002; revised version: July 25, 2002 RID="*" ID="*"We thank Anne Villamil, participants in the 2000 Purdue University Conference on Monetary Economics, the Summer 2000 meetings of the Economic Science Association, and a referee, for very helpful comments. We thank the Krannert School of Management and the Purdue University Center for International Business, Education and Research for financial support and Vivian Lei for research assistance. We also thank Ron Michener for referring us to the historical account of the early introduction of money into the American colonies, as reported by Benjamin Franklin. Correspondence to: G. Camera     

Macroeconomic News and the Euro/Dollar Exchange Rate

This paper investigates to what extent daily movements in the euro/dollar rate were driven by news about the macroeconomic situation in the USA and the euro area during the first two years of EMU. We examine whether market participants reacted to news in different ways depending on whether the news came from the USA or from the euro area, and whether the news was good or bad. Furthermore, we investigate whether traders' reaction to news has changed over time. We find that macroeconomic news has a statistically significant correlation with daily movements of the euro against the dollar. However, this relationship exhibits considerable time variation. There are indications of asymmetric response, but to different extents at different times. Our results also provide evidence that the market seemed to ignore good news and remain fixated on bad news from the euro area, as often claimed in market commentaries, but only for some time. Finally, we find evidence that the impact of macroeconomic news on the euro/dollar rate was stronger when news switches from good to bad or vice versa.
(J.E.L.: F31).